Curt HoggMilwaukee Journal Sentinel
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CINCINNATI – Disregard, if you will, the latest sampling of what the Milwaukee Brewers showed on the diamond. Look past about the 4-3, 11-inning loss that prevented what would have been a four-game sweep of the Cincinnati Reds. Wash the 0-for-21 skid to close the game away.
Let’s talk about what the Brewers have done so far.
The Brewers have entrenched themselves, rather firmly, into a postseason spot. They remain nine games clear of the second-place Chicago Cubs in the National League Central, this in spite of the Cubs playing at a remarkable clip for the last month. Milwaukee entered the day tied with the Philadelphia Phillies for a first-round bye and just two games back of the Los Angeles Dodgers for the best record in baseball.
Now 80-57, the Brewers are staring down the final stretch of the regular season. What happens after that, of course, is what will be predominantly remembered.
Regular season success is a delight, yet the Brewers, by virtue of winning the past seven years, have played their way to greater expectations. After bowing out early in the playoffs in each of their last four appearances, the pressure will be on.
With 25 games to go until that pressure arrives, here are 25 glass-completely-full reasons to believe in this year’s Brewers.
They have the best run differential in baseball
The Brewers have scored 133 more runs than their opponents this year, more than anyone in baseball. This is perhaps the most convincing indicator of why the Brewers can go far. There’s no faking your way to a better run differential than the Dodgers or Yankees or Phillies. Good teams outscore their opponents – by a lot.
The Brewers do that.
They are a good team.
The rotation is coming along
Since June 1, Brewers starters have a 3.79 earned run average, the best in the National League. Since July 1, it’s 3.48 – also the best in the NL.
They are wizards with the gloves
Any way you spin it, the Brewers have an elite defense. By defensive runs saved, they are third in MLB. By outs above average they are tied for second. Part of the reason they’re able to hang around in just about every game is the defense. They don’t give away many runs that opponents haven’t earned. They win games with the gloves, too; look no further than Saturday night’s 5-4 win that featured a home run robbery and game-ending diving stop by Jake Bauers.
They have Jackson Chourio
He’s the real deal.
Entering Sunday, Chourio was slashing .320/.369/.540 since June 2. His OPS over that stretch is 13th in baseball, in the same neighborhood as Marcell Ozuna, Francisco Lindor and Freddie Freeman. He’s 20 years old and seemingly only getting better by the day.
And Chourio reminds you of someone
When Chourio gets a big hit or makes a great play, he goes back to Freddy Peralta in the dugout and asks, “You see how good I am?”
"He believes that he’s great," Peralta said. "You can tell. I laugh all the time... I don’t even know what answer to give him. I just laugh about it because he’s believing that.”
The unabashed confidence at such a young age harkens back to another Brewers rookie nearly two decades ago: Ryan Braun.
Their confidence manifests itself in different ways. Braun had enough swagger to fill up an entire high-end department store. Chourio’s confidence is displayed more in his pure joy on the field in the form of his megawatt smile.
But this much is strikingly identical:
When they both were in the box, they knew how good they were. And, in that moment, nothing else mattered. Not the pitcher, not the score, not the pressure of the moment.
Speaking of Peralta…
The man tasked with being an ace at the start of the year is pitching like one of late. It’s been an up-and-down year for Peralta, but he’s allowed one run over his last three starts and, going back even further, has a 2.99 ERA over his last 13 outings.
Perhaps most importantly, he’s pitching with the confidence of a No. 1 starter once again.
The roster doesn’t have a glaring hole
Sometimes, playoff baseball can be just as much about the weaknesses of your roster as much as it is about your best players.
The Brewers may not be able to compete with the top of the rosters of the Dodgers or Phillies, but there’s no questioning their depth. Milwaukee might have the deepest team in baseball. One through nine in the lineup, there are no easy outs, no spots for pitchers to take a breath. They’re top 10 in starting pitching ERA on the year (and even better over the last three months) and the bullpen has the second-best ERA in baseball.
There are electric arms in the back end
Devin Williams, Trevor Megill, Bryan Hudson, Joel Payamps, Jared Koenig and maybe even Aaron Ashby, DL Hall and Jacob Misiorowski. That’s a bullpen that has some potential to be nasty come the playoffs. It may very well be the Brewers’ greatest strength in short series.
Are they just...due?
Might the baseball gods just owe Milwaukee one? It’s not exactly rational logic, but it doesn’t have to be. Fifty-four seasons with one World Series appearance is quite a lot.
They are never out of a game, which makes a short series an attractive option.
They’ve lost by more than four runs only seven times all season. Only 11 times have they lost in nine innings when it wasn’t either a save situation for the opponent or within three runs when the final out was recorded.
Blake Perkins is one of the most underrated players in baseball.
Perkins might be the best defensive center fielder in baseball. If he had the name recognition, he could easily win a Gold Glove this year. Just ask Lars Nootbaar or Christopher Morel or Jarred Kelenic or Thairo Estrada or Noelvi Marte, all of who have had a ball hit over the fence land in Perkins’ glove this year.
He’s also a league-average hitter, coming into the day Sunday with a 101 wRC+, who is on pace to swipe more than 20 bases.
They aren’t going to let off the gas
The Brewers are arguably playing their best ball of the year with a month to go, which should allow them to clinch a playoff spot relatively early. But don’t worry about them hitting cruise control; that isn’t manager Pat Murphy’s style. “You can’t coast uphill,” he has repeatedly said this year.
Home? Road? Good team? Bad team? Doesn’t matter
The Brewers are 40-32 on the road and 44-33 against clubs with a record above .500. They are where they are in the standings because they can win in any situation against any team.(Unless it's the last-place Marlins, who they seemingly cannot win against.)
Gary Sanchez and Rhys Hoskins are just the type of players who hit unforgettable postseason bombs
This is based on feel more than anything, so good luck arguing it.
Sanchez and Hoskins were the Brewers’ two big free-agent additions to the lineup in the off-season. It’s been a solid year for the former and not so much for the latter, but throw regular season results aside when October comes around for two proven veteran hitters like that.
Can’t you just see one of them sending American Family Field into a frenzy with a big blast when it matters?
'Win tonight.'
Who better to be ready mentally for the ramp-up in intensity of a playoff atmosphere than a group that has ‘Win Tonight’ plastered in large, bold lettering in the hallway leading from the home clubhouse to the field?
The offense’s greatest strength
Nationally, some might be surprised to learn that the Brewers have a top-five offense in terms of scoring, especially considering they’re only 18th in homers and 13th in slugging percentage.
But the Brewers are as good as anyone at discerning balls and strikes, which portends well for their chaos-ball style of play. They chase at a lower rate than every team but the Yankees while also carrying one of the best contact rates in the league.
This, mixed in with having a few big boppers in the lineup and being an elite base-running club, is how you get to those scoring totals.
The bats are getting better, too
In an effort led by Chourio, William Contreras and Willy Adames, the Brewers have a 112 team wRc+ and .764 OPS in the second half.
They play chaos-ball and at its best it can be quite effective
Sure, the Brewers could hit some more home runs. That would be nice, wouldn’t it? But the reality of this club is that isn’t their identity. Instead, they can win in a variety of different ways and from various corners of the roster. From base running, to shortening up and playing small ball, to dominant pitching to game-saving glovework, they don’t win the same way consecutively very often.
Aaron Ashby’s emergence
Seemingly an afterthought for the big-league club all of a month ago when he was moved to the bullpen at Class AAA with an ERA in the upper-eights, Aaron Ashby is back with the Brewers and suddenly has the look of a potential impact arm in the playoffs. In six games since rejoining Milwaukee last Sunday in Oakland, Ashby has allowed one hit, two walks and no runs while striking out six over six innings.
He’s back to throwing 98 mph with a pair of wipeout breaking balls and a nasty changeup while, perhaps most critically, throwing strikes.
There is no clearly superior team in baseball
There are no other teams that are legitimately better than everyone else, except maybe the fully-healthy Dodgers, and they likely won't have to play the Brewers until the NLCS.
An indicator from recent history
Anything can happen in the playoffs in baseball. You hear that said a lot – and it is accurate. Baseball has by far the most unpredictable postseason of any of the major American sports.
But in recent years, it has typically been one of the best teams that comes out on top. Since the 2016 season, the average regular-season run differential rank of the eventual World Series champion is third. Six of the eight winners have been a top-four team by run differential, and none have finished lower than seventh.
William Contreras’ ongoing trend
William Contreras has put together another season worthy of receiving MVP votes and August was his best month yet. Contreras batted .295 with a 1.046 OPS, nine home runs and eight doubles.
After his numbers faded in June (.535 OPS) and July (.752), Contreras got back to driving the ball in the air in August. His hard-hit rate of 51.3% was his best since May; perhaps more importantly, his launch angle of 11 degrees was the highest it’s been in any month this year.
Frankie Montas has stepped forward as a potentially reliable playoff starter
The Brewers may be able to piece together 27 outs with a deep bullpen, but having four trustworthy starters in a playoff series is still an important commodity the deeper into October a team’s run goes.
What if there are more reinforcements on the way?
There’s still a very real chance the arm with arguably the most electric stuff in the minor leagues could join the Brewers’ bullpen down the stretch. Misiorowski, the team’s top prospect, has struck out 13 and sports a 2.13 ERA through his first 12 ⅔ innings since being called up to Class AAA Nashville at the start of August.
Maybe this is just their year
There are thoughts, standing around in the clubhouse after a win, of what the Brewers could accomplish. It’s based on little more than a feeling after observing one team up-close for the past seven months. Is this just their year? The playoffs, more than anything, are about being hot at the right time. Of latching onto a feeling and not relenting. Of, when the moment rises, rising to the moment.
The way these Brewers see it, why can’t that be them?
They have the pieces in place. They may not be the best-looking roster at the dance in a month, but then again, they haven’t been for 137 games and here they are. They know that and don’t run from it. Rather, somehow, someway it seems to be to their benefit.
That’s a credit to the club and the manager that has set the tone and gotten them to buy into a compete-at-all-costs each night.
Maybe, just maybe, there might still be a lot of winning tonight left in the Brewers.
Buckle up.
